Inderpal Singh
Post 1: Wrapping Head around the Challenge
A Tuition Market: An Alarm Bell
One of the markets in Ludhiana, the largest city of Punjab, has a strangely funny name: Tuition market. A significant proportion of the “market” is filled with coaching centres – training students mostly in IELTS, in addition to competitive exams such as JEE and NEET. Another similar site in the city is the area near the Passport Seva Kendra, where youngsters from far and wide reach every day to hone their English language skills to meet requirements for visa. A significant number of these centres have mushroomed only in the last few years, and at an unprecedented rate. The phenomenon is as common now in the rural Punjab as in the urban Punjab.
When education and “tuition” become a “market” or a business, it is not difficult to understand how its levers are being pulled not by a careful policy blueprint but by pure economic forces; in which case, it is high time to pause and reflect.
Addressing a conference in the Bathinda district in 2022, the Chief Minister of Punjab, Bhagwant Mann revealed that there were estimates of 2.75 lakh Punjabis moving out of Punjab in that year. This number was about three times the average of the last five years. Even when these figures are normalised for the pandemic (since there must have been a backlog of visa applications due to Covid-19) the current yearly average still comes close to 2 lakh people leaving Punjab every year. The worrying reality is also evident from the fact that 6 lakh youth sit to attempt the IELTS test in Punjab each year.
Another speech of CM Mann revealed that the yearly amount spent on foreign education by the Punjabi diaspora – which amounts to about 30,000 crores – is as big as 20% the size of the state’s budget. Interestingly, addressing these massive numbers was one of the current Punjab government’s key election agenda – which makes migration as much of a political question as it is social.
The Four Waves: Understanding a History of Migration from Punjab
Migration from Punjab is not historically unheard of. Long before Indian independence, the Punjabi diaspora had a considerable presence in the UK, the US, Canada, and China. People from the Doaba region were the first to migrate (christening it with the name “NRI belt of Punjab”), taking up low-wage jobs in countries in the west as well as the middle east. It is important to understand the phenomenon of migration in Punjab through a historical lens. Various writers have divided this history in various waves, depending on the nature and period of that wave.
The first wave of migration occurred prior to India’s independence in 1947 and was primarily driven by two factors: indentured labour and military service. Those who migrated as soldiers, serving in the British Indian Army especially during the two world wars, migrated to countries such as Germany, Italy, Canada, the UK, and the US. This wave was important as it gave the Punjabi community an entry point to migrate overseas, as well as a headstart in terms of migration, a first-runner’s advantage.
The second wave of migration occurred after India’s independence in 1947 and was driven by a combination of economic factors and political instability. The newly independent Indian economy was struggling, with high levels of poverty and unemployment. Many Punjabis, particularly those from rural areas, saw migration as a way to escape poverty and find better economic opportunities abroad. This wave of migration was characterised by a significant degree of unskilled labour migration, with many Punjabis taking up low-wage jobs in countries such as the United Kingdom and Canada.
The third wave of migration occurred during the period of political instability that characterised the state of Punjab beginning in the 1980s to the late 1990s. This decade was marked by political unrest, police brutality, and economic challenges, which led many Punjabis to seek new opportunities and better lives abroad.
The fourth wave of migration, which began in the late 1990s and continues to the present day, is characterised by a new set of motivations and drivers. Economic factors continue to play a role, with many Punjabis seeking better job opportunities and higher wages abroad. However, this wave of migration is also motivated by a range of political and social factors, including political insecurities, family factors, peer pressure, and concerns about safety and security. This wave of migration is also marked by a significant number of Punjabis seeking permanent residency and citizenship abroad, with many pursuing family reunification and other forms of legal migration.
Monica Boyd, a professor at the University of Toronto, points out that migration is not always a haphazard movement of poor people. Not even are the push and pull factors at times able to fully explain the phenomena of migration. There is, for instance, the concept of “Chain migration” which catalyses this process. People who migrate tend to invite their immediate family members, and subsequently, extended family, seeking family reunification and better prospects for them. The current wave can also be interpreted as the beginning of the fall of the large domino tiles once the smaller ones have created a force strong enough. A constellation of factors in conjunction with each other result in a phenomena as large as what we are witnessing.
The Extent of the Challenge: Looking at larger trends
2023 data from the author’s sample survey from eight universities and villages of Punjab showed that when asked about migration at random, 38.9% families had a youngster who had aspirations to move abroad, 31.5% families already had someone who was abroad, and the remaining 29.6% were almost sure that they wanted to stay in Punjab.
Chart 1. Categories of respondents
Interestingly, 60% of the respondents had at least one close family member and friend who had moved abroad already. Of which, 26.4% had exactly one such member abroad, 17.3% had two members and 16.4% had more than two members abroad. This only shows us the extent to which migration has already happened, but also can help us predict the future trends of migration based on this observation, as there exists a logical correlation between the number of close acquaintances living abroad, and the likelihood of the respondent’s decision to migrate. According to a survey done by the author, about 91.5% of respondents are likely to migrate when at least one close acquaintance is already abroad, versus a 30% likelihood of migrating when no close acquaintance has migrated. This means that people with at least one close family member or friend abroad are about 3 times more likely to migrate.
Chart 2. Number of members already abroad per respondent
The author also tried to find how the flow of migration is panned out in terms of the destination country. The largest number of previous/prospective migrants prefer(ed) Canada (at 34.7%), followed by the US (24.8%), Australia (16.8%), UK (12.9%), Arab countries (7.9%) and others (3.0%). Of course, a lot of these choices are influenced by policy reasons – some nations are more welcoming towards migrants (like Canada, which needs more workforce to keep its economy running), while some have stricter policies (like the UK, which is reaching its immigration saturation point, therefore migration becoming increasingly difficult). These get reflected in the proportion of people aiming for these countries, just like a demand and supply relation.
Conclusion
It is important to sense these trends and place them in eyesight when policies are made for the youth, expanding to economic policies in general. The exodus of youth in large numbers, combined with the trends of family migration and chain migration, are concerning, and need immediate focus of the policymakers and public-spirited citizens.
A pertinent question to reckon with in this context is this: Punjabis as a community had a great role in the Indian independence. Punjab’s freedom fighters, protests, movements and sacrifices turned out to be watershed for the freedom struggle. Given this historical fact, isn’t it then surprising to see one of the largest migration trails of the nation from such a state? It is high time to take a step back and go over with a fine-tooth comb to look at the causes of this
Scores of literature is available on the state of the “American Dream” and what it means for immigrants in the US. In the last few decades, Punjab has moved more and more ardently towards its “Canadian Dream”. While the concept of reverse migration is increasingly being a part of the narrative now, it still seems more like an exception than a rule. It is important that we take note of the social change taking place, for it is bound to have larger implications for the future and the coming generations. As William L. Swing, the Director General of the International Organization for Migration (IOM), said, “Migration is a process and not a problem”, it is important to understand the nuances of Punjab’s migration and focus on a solution-oriented analysis of levers of migration and its impacts for the future.
Inderpal Singh is a LAMP Fellow, and a Research intern at Asia Society Policy Institute, Delhi. He is a graduate in Political Science from St. Stephen’s College.